Tuesday, November 27, 2007

The Game for the Roses - Bruins Visit The Coliseum


After a rocky mid-season, the Trojans have fought their way back to a chance for the Roses. And now only the Bruins stand in the way, with their own (long) shot to play in the Rose Bowl.


Its Championship Saturday folks . . . no other buildup is needed.


The Bruins literally limp into the Coliseum not sure who's healthy or experienced enough to play QB, but with a defense that has been battle tested. The Trojans are peaking at just the right time on both sides of the ball. But despite the condition of both teams, this RIVARLY game takes on a life force of its own . . . and the team who's WILL is the strongest on game day ends up being the winner.


Let's break it down:


UCLA


Offense - The Bruins have (3) QBs to choose from . . . and yet, no QBs to choose from. Ben Olson, Pat Cowan and Ossar Rashaan are injured or woefully inexperienced to some degree - the bet is that Olson with his bad knee, 50% completion rate, 7 TDs and 6 INTs will at least start the game - but who finishes is anybody's guess. The running back situation is hardly any better, but at least the solid Chris Markey is back and should receive the majority of carries, with Craig Sheppard spelling him. WR Brandon Breazell leads the receiving corp, and is probably the Bruins best playmaker at this point with 46 receptions for 713 yards. He's also the trick play guy as he seems to get the ball on a reverse, stop, and then try to throw a pass downfield to another receiver every big game for the Bruins. The OLine has only been okay - part of that has to do with the revolving QB door behind them - as the offense is ranked 9th or 10th in the conference in scoring, passing and total offense in the Pac 10.


Defense - not very big in the front (7), but they use their speed, hustle and positioning to make plays as the #4 team in the Pac 10 in total defense. DE Bruce Davis leads the DLine in trash talk and sacks with 9.5 this year, while the rest of the front four is make-shift. LBs Christian Taylor and Reggie Carter are particularly active vs. the run, helping the Bruins rank third in the conference against the run game. The CB tandem of Trey Brown and Al Verner is not big, but they have been particularly productive - garnering (4) INTs apiece and combining to breakup 29 passes this year. Safeties Horton and Van like to support the run defense, but often leave their feet to make tackles - not good as the last line of defense.


Special Teams - the strength of the team. Kicker Kai Forbath is clicking at an 85% rate, and has been integral to the Bruin offense. KOR Matt Slater has been a secret weapon this year, as he has returned (3) kickoffs for TDs and ranks #1 in the Pac 10 in return avg. (30 yards). Punter Aaron Perez averages a nice 43 yards per kick, as well.


USC


Offense - JD Booty and the offense have been humming on all cyclinders the past few weeks, keeping defenses off balance by running and passing the ball well. Once again, Booty must limit turnovers giving the Bruins NO cheap opportunities. The run game will have flexibility to run inside and outside with Washington, Johnson and McKnight - and I would love to see more toss sweeps to complement the bread and butter inside counter running plays. The Bruin defense will probably "bracket" TE Fred Davis to limit his chances, but if the Trojan WRs can have another efficient game - no drops, stay upright for yards after catch and block downfield - the Bruins will be in trouble. SC's mostly healthy OLine vs. the Bruin DLine will be the battle ground - the controller of that line will determine whether this game is a Trojan blowout or a close game.


Defense - No matter what QB the Bruins trot out there . . . that individual is in trouble. The SC DLine has been feeding in opponents' backfield for most of the season, but especially in the last three games racking up (13) sacks as a unit. Its been "mission accomplished" as far as stopping the run game - and it will be no different vs. UCLA. Similar to the ASU game, the Trojan LBs need to be prepared for Bruin draw plays and screens to RB Chris Markey as an escape from the intense SC pressure. The Trojan DBs will also need to stay disciplined as UCLA typically goes deep a few times a game, with a trick pass play thrown in there.


Special Teams - The KO coverage teams can't afford a breakdown as with ASU - the Bruins' Matt Slater is really good on KORs and UCLA could use a cheap TD from their special teams to stay in the game. RoJo, however, can continue to help SC's offense with good returns as well. (Interesting note - UCLA has failed to notch a touchback on KOs this year.) DBuehler has just been money on FGs this year, and his scoring has kept the pressure on opposing offenses.


What to Watch For: This game kind of boils down to SC's offense vs. UCLA's defense - so I'm going to pay close attention to:


* 3rd Downs - UCLA's defense has made a living getting offenses off the field on third downs (ranking 1st in the Pac 10), while SC's offense is converting 3rd downs at about a 45% clip (basically tied for first in the conference)


* The Red Zone - SC's offense has been spectacular in the kill zone, scoring over 87% of the time - 1st in the Pac 10. UCLA, on the other hand, ranks 2nd in the conference in Red Zone defense. Their defense has kept the team in ball games due to its ability to keep teams off the scoreboard inside the 20 yard line.


Prediction:


USC - 34


UCLA - 10

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

SC- 49
Ugly-3

Pete snubs his nose to Ugly as well as the media.

Brad said...

We're rollin' to the Rose Bowl!

SC - 42
ucla - 16

Unknown said...

... pick up where we left off on Thanksgiving ... and roll::

SC - 41
ugla - 6

Anonymous said...

Bring it on!!!

SC - 45
ucla - 16