Tuesday, December 2, 2008

USC and UCLA Square Off . . .


UCLA coach Neuheisel threw down the gauntlet before the season by proclaiming that the Trojan dynasty in LA was over! So despite UCLA's 4 - 7 record, SC must put this dude in his place . . . Trojan style!!!

Its breakdown time:

UCLA

Offense
- QB Kevin Craft should officially change the name on his jersey to "Pick Six". He's thrown a whopping 19 INTs to only 7 TDs, while completing only 56% of his passes. Under his guidance, the Bruin offense ranks 110th in college football.

UCLA's offensive line and running backs, however, have been no help to Craft. The OLine has led the Bruin rushing game to a paltry 86 yards rushing per game, and given up 35 sacks. Oft-injured running back Kahlil Bell is the leading rusher with 394 yards on the season on 2.8 ypc with 7 TDs.

WR Terrence Austin leads the team with 49 receptions, but he only has 1 TD catch on the year. Other solid WRs include Taylor Embree and the 6'5 Dominique Johnson who have combined for 70 receptions this season. TE Ryan Moya is a frequent target for QB Craft - he has 3 TDs and 38 receptions on the season.

Defense - This unit has kept UCLA in plenty of ball games this year, primarily with a pass defense that ranks 2nd in the country (158 ypg) CBs Alteraun Verner and Michael Norris have done a solid job in coverage breaking up nearly 30 passes between them.

UCLA's run defense hasn't been good statistically, giving up 166 yards per game (8th in the PAC 10). But the Bruin defensive line is solid. DTs Brigham Harwell and Brian Price have chalked up 19 TFLs and 5.5 sacks this season. DEs Akeem Ayers and Korey Bosworth are both light, but they have decent quickness. Bosworth leads the team in sacks with 7.5. Active LB Reggie Carter leads the team in tackles this season.

Special Teams - WR Terrence Austin is solid as both the punt and kickoff return man. He has not returned a punt or kickoff for a TD this year, though.

The kicking game is strong. K Kai Forbath is one of the most accurate FG kickers from distance - making 19 - 22 FGs, including 5 of 6 from 40+ yards. Punter Aaron Perez is averaging 44.5 ypp.

Hidden Stat: UCLA is (-11) in the turnover margin department giving up the rock 28 times this season, while gaining only 17 turnovers.


USC

Offense
- After a nice string of turnover-less games, QB Mark Sanchez had (2)INTs last week. He bounced back well after those mistakes, but needs to take care of the ball vs. UCLA, and not give them extra possessions.

The Trojan running game is humming right along at 205 ypg. But SC must be ready to adjust if UCLA run blitzes their LBs up the middle and moves a safety into the "box" (a la 2006). Running and/or passing plays on the perimeter to guys like Joe McKnight and Ronald Johnson will be a must if this happens.

IMO, SC will also see some man-to-man coverage on productive WRs Damian Williams and Patrick Turner. UCLA's pass defense has been excellent, and they are comfortable leaving their CBs on an island with WRs.


Defense - At the top of nearly every defensive category in CFB, SC's front (7) is licking their chops watching UCLA game film. The Trojan defense should overwhelm a Bruin OLine that doesn't protect their QB nor open running lanes.

Turnover prone QB Craft also holds onto the ball too long going through his progressions resulting in sacks. So I would expect Bruin OC Chow to move the pocket for Craft, and give him quick 3-step drop passing plays.

The Trojan CBs and strong safety (Will Harris) will need to be "up" in pass coverage to take away those short passing routes, and make Craft look for his 2nd and 3rd receiver options. By that time, DE Kyle Moore, DT Fili Moala and DE Clay Matthews should be closing like a vice on Craft.

Trojan LBs (especially strong side OLB Brian Cushing) will need to be physical with Bruin TE Ryan Moya to not allow him a clean release off the line of scrimmage. And the LBs also need to watch a decently mobile QB Craft on scrambles (remember, Bruin QB Cowan hurt SC in that regard in 2006).

Special Teams - I look for Trojan punt returners Stafon Johnson or Joe McKnight to have plenty of opportunities in this game. The kickoff returners (Gable and RoJo) . . . not so much.

K David Buehler has an amazing (43) touchbacks on kickoffs this year. And hopefully, punter Greg Woidneck will get good hang time on his punts, if he continues to kick them only 37 - 39 yards.

Hidden Stat: The Trojan pass defense has only given up (3) TDs through the air this year in 11 games.

Prediction:

USC
- 34

UCLA - 3

3 comments:

Marc said...

Time for the D to really finish this sucker off!!!
RISE UP!!!

'SC - 31
ugla - 0

D. Moody said...

'SC is settling into the idea of the Rose Bowl, so no pollsters to impress. A straight forward game plan will be aimed at locking up the Pac 10 Championship. I'm hoping for style points, but a 'W' will do.

'SC - 28
ugly - 10

J-man said...

Well...

I think it will be higher scoring...

'SC - 52
baby blue - 10